Dan Kara Conference Chair President Robotics Trends

Let me begin by stating unequivocally that I am no high tech Pollyanna. In fact I am the categorical opposite, a clear eyed high tech veteran, and as such I reflexively cast a cynical eye whenever I read of pundits proclaiming the “next, next big thing”. I have been in high tech far too long to be fooled again. Like some of you, I was there to witness the rise and fall of Artificial Intelligence (big AI) and was still around when the Internet-fueled “New Economy” went supernova. But these are stories for another time.

Occasionally, though, even a jaded grey beard can be given pause by the appearance of a new technology market. A far rarer event, however, is to find a market change so profound that it will radically alter the way we live our lives day-to-day. The emerging personal and service robotics market, or mobile robotics if you prefer, is one such market In this column, I will define mobile robotics and lay out evidence why I believe that the market for intelligent, mobile robots that entertain, educate, assist and protect us, is the real deal, and why it presents immense opportunities for individuals and corporate entities alike.

Intelligent, Autonomous, Mobile Robots What markets are we speaking of exactly? I have always found that the best place to begin anything is at the beginning. For starters, the robotics market as a whole is comprised of three distinct, yet substantial, subgroups. These are Industrial Robotics, Service Robotics, and Personal Robotics.

The older industrial robotics segment, which was developed over the second half of the last century, consists of immobile, single task robots that have little interaction with humans or the world around them. They are termed industrial robots because they are exclusively employed in manufacturing and factory floor automation. You know the type. They are the robots, actually the articulated robotic arms, responsible for spot welding our cars, painting our refrigerators and checking for irregularities in assembled products.

Such industrial robots differ radically from the robots and robotic technology that are the focus of this column and the Robotics Trends portal – mobile, interactive robotic devices with a high degree of intelligence built into them, which freely interact with humans, other robots and their surroundings. Such robots and robotic technology are termed personal and service robots, although they are often combined into a larger “mobile robotics” category.

Personal Robotics Robotics Trends defines Personal Robots as robots or robotic technology purchased by individual buyers (consumers) which educate, entertain or assist in the home. The personal robotics market serves the consumer market in many diverse segments and is typified by products such as home automation/domestic service robots (robotic vacuum cleaners and home security robots, for example), hobbyist/education robots and entertainment robots (Lego’s Mindstorms and Sony’s Aibo robot dog serve as examples, respectively). Intelligent mobile toys such as Hasbro’s Fur Real Friends, along with those robots that assist the disabled and elderly in the home, also fall into the personal robotics category.

Service Robotics Service robots, semi or fully autonomous mobile robots that assist humans, service equipment and perform other autonomous functions, have applications in almost every industry – anywhere where work is repetitive, requires continuously high levels of concentration, is physically demanding or takes place in dangerous environments. Examples of areas where service robots are working, or in development, includes, but is not limited to, industrial cleaning, equipment maintenance, and data acquisition. The da Vinci robotic surgery system, is a service robot, along with a whole host of other medical/healthcare robots such as rehabilitation robots, and prosthetic and orthotic devices. The robotic rovers Spirit and Opportunity currently hurtling towards Mars are exploration and discovery service robots, as are the Pyramid Rovers exploring inside the pyramid of Cheops. Inspection, security, construction, demolition, delivery, the list goes on and on, are all services now provided by service robots.

Robots for defense and homeland security are probably the largest subclass of service robots. Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV), and of course Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAV), best exemplified by the Air Force’s Predator UAV, are common military service robotic types. Often linked to military robots are search and rescue, fire fighting, de-mining, surveillance and other types of public safety robots.

Some Quantitative Evidence
The personal and service robotics markets are immature markets. Nothing exemplifies this immaturity better than the lack of quantitative market sizing data and professional, critical analysis. The quantitative studies that do exist, however, indicate a market on the verge of dramatic growth. Recent research by the Japan Robotics Association (JPA), United Nations Economic Commission (UNEC) and the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) indicates that the nascent personal and service robotics market will exhibit exceptional near term growth and will surpass the size of the much older industrial robotic market at the end of 2005 (Figures 1-2). It is also important to note that the JRA, UNEC and IFR studies do not include military robots, perhaps the largest service robot market, in their market sizing analyses.

To derive data for the personal and service robotics market, one often must extrapolate from existing studies. For example, for a recent Japan Robotics Association (JPA) study, data for the service and personal robotics market can be derived by combining the public sector, medical, welfare and home markets. According to the JPA (Figure 1), the service and personal robotics marketplaces together will equal the size of the industrial robotics market (the combination of manufacturing and bio-industrial) by 2005, and will be twice the size of the industrial robotics market by 2010, and almost 4X its size by 2025.

On a similar note, the United Nations Economic Commission (UNEC) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) estimate that the personal and service robotics market will roughly double between 2002 and 2005, reaching $5.2B in 2005 (Figure 2). The number of personal and service robots sold is expected to increase ten fold between 2002 and 2005 according to the UNEC and IFR. Sales for domestic robots (vacuum cleaning, lawn mowing, window cleaning and other types) is expected to reach over 800,000 units, while sales for toy and entertainment robots will exceed one million units. Startling projections of drastic market growth based on scant research is nothing new to nascent technology markets. In fact it is the rule rather than the exception. But some assurance as to the validity of estimates can be had if the various studies are in basic agreement. For example, the Japan Robotics Association expects the personal and service robotics market to grow from $600M in 2002 to $5.4B in 2005, and expand even more quickly after that. These figures closely approximate those of the UNEC and IFR studies.